Some people are wondering what it’s going to be like when we get back to normal, but the reality is normal is no more. We’re looking at a completely new normal and it’s going to take some time for that to settle in. Many things are going to change. Things are going to be done very differently than they have in the past. Once we got over the rush on toilet paper, people start asking the tougher question – what are we going to eat?
Everything about the food we eat is in the process of changing. The concept of food production and distribution is changing. There are changes from the time it leaves the fields, to the time we sit down to eat it. In some cases, it’s not even able to leave the field because the distribution process is being interrupted. Private citizens are driving to farms to pick up loads of potatoes and other vegetables just so they don’t go to waste.
Food Production and Distribution
Food production for both agricultural and processed foods is going to be done on more of a regional basis.
It is going to be a matter of stabilizing food production, transportation, and food security. There will be a move away from some of the giant food production plants in the Midwest and elsewhere. You’re going to have small, more traditional butchers and meatpacking plants in almost every state. The same thing will be true with fruits and vegetables. Think microbreweries for everything else we consume.
Agricultural incentives will become important to ensure farms continue in states to meet some percentage of regular needs. While it may be impossible to undo the last 100 years of urban / agricultural segregation, we will need to take some steps to ensure strategic food security on a state level. While this will reduce the cost of transportation, smaller quantities are likely to cost somewhat more. Hopefully, the changes in costs will balance each other out. By doing things in smaller batches closer to both supplies and consumers, possible future cases of contamination may be minimized as well. Hopefully, we won’t have to revert to the Sherman act to break up the big food producers. If they can read the writing on the walls, they should be applying for incentives to set up smaller food processing facilities in areas where they don’t currently have a presence.
The change won’t be limited to traditional farms. Look for an increase in aquaculture, backyard chickens, and rooftop agriculture in cities.
This will become important in the event of future catastrophes or pandemics. We need to make sure that the food supply isn’t interrupted in the process. On a slightly smaller scale, I think you’re going to see an explosion in gardening. In urban areas especially, gardening is likely to take off. With problems with food distribution, local produce is going to become even more important than it is right now. Expect to see almost any available vacant land in urban areas being converted to gardens within the coming weeks. You will see these become community gardens for local populations. Traditional farmers may find themselves in consulting roles, showing families how to raise food.
Restaurants
One of the first casualties of this pandemic was sit-down restaurants. Conversely, food pantries and aid organizations scrambled to meet demand.
By the time this is over, I hope governments see that local restaurants are part of the solution. By directing disaster dollars to restaurants to provide meals on a contract basis would keep restaurants open, and would limit the additional burden on aid organizations. Check out the work of World Central Kitchen(wck.org).
Online food ordering is longer limited to pizza. Grub Hug and Uber Eats have already made that a reality, but it can go even further. My local ice cream shop for instance now has online ordering. I just wish they would start making my favorite flavor – brownie dough.
The whole concept of takeout is changing. More restaurants are offering what they call family meal deals. You aren’t just ordering one or two items for takeout, you may be ordering a feast with leftovers for several days. KFC has been doing this for a long time, but other restaurants are now getting in the mix. They are coming up with their own combination of entire meals for families.
Government Food Programs
Almost all government programs dealing with food are changing.
SNAP (formerly Food Stamps) is undergoing one of the biggest functional changes. Benefits used to be limited to certain foods purchased at grocery stores.
Because of challenges in food availability and the increased risk of infection through frequent grocery shopping, benefits are starting to be allowed at restaurants. The SNAP CARRY Act benefits both restaurants and SNAP recipients by allowing them to purchase prepared foods. This is an expansion of the Restaurant Meals Program which has been in limited use since the 70s. The original intent was to expand options for persons with limited to barriers in cooking through being disabled, homeless, or elderly. This latest modification will let SNAP recipients use their benefits at both grocery stores and restaurants.
WIC is a nutritional education program for Women, Infants, and Children that is also changing. Most people confuse it with SNAP, but it focuses on specific nutritional needs for the population it serves. Since it’s a prescription and not a cash benefit like SNAP, it’s probably one of the most complex government programs. A typical state will have between 10-15,000 approved food items.
These are allocated by category and often individual items into a specific prescription for a family. All of these have been programmed into the cash registers of your local store so only the foods prescribed can be redeemed.
From a program level, WIC also requires regular visits to a WIC clinic for regular health checks and to ensure continued eligibility. The program requires bloodwork, height and weight measurement, and often a doctor’s prescription for medical formula. As such, in-person visits have been the standard.
Covid 19 introduced two problems to the program – physical appointments and food availability. The in-person requirement for registration and appointments is currently waived for most states. Many programs previously had mobile clinics at satellite locations, but the idea of a fully remote clinic structure has never been implemented. Conduction appointments over the phone or with video hadn’t even been considered before this pandemic.
WIC was one of the last government programs to use paper checks.
Based on a federal mandate, all states were supposed to make the transition to electronic (EBT) benefits by the end of 2020. About 3/4 have already made the transition. These programs made a much smoother transition to remote operations than those still dealing with checks. EBT benefits can be changed or refreshed electronically. Checks need to printed, mailed, and sometimes replaced.
And more importantly they need to be touched by a minimum of 3 people from printing to purchase. This pandemic is likely to accelerate the remaining WIC programs’ adoption of EBT.
You would think that with upwards of 10,000 food choices there would be plenty of options. This is until you get to the store and find empty sections throughout the store. For most of us, we may just wait a week until the shelves are restocked. Unfortunately, WIC benefits expire on a monthly basis. As such, participants risk losing their benefits when foods are not available. WIC programs have been adding additional choices and product sizes to address the limits they are seeing in their community. In some cases, they are also adding emergency benefits so participants can better manage variances in food availability.
Depending on how long this pandemic continues, other changes may be in store for WIC. Currently, benefits are limited to a particular state. Interstate benefits have been discussed for a few years, but the complexity between programs has been a roadblock. Since shopping patterns aren’t otherwise limited to state borders, we may start seeing WIC benefits shared across state lines. You might not be able to use your benefits issued in Michigan in Texas, but Connecticut benefits being used in New York, Massachusetts, or Rhode Island could become a reality. Online ordering for WIC is also likely to become a reality.
What’s next?
In many ways, you will see the re-emergence of food structures from 200 years ago. Locally grown, locally raised, and locally baked are going to become the standard again. There’s still a place for the large food corporations, but they need to look at the security of smaller production facilities, rather than the cost savings of larger centralized plants. Combined with a local food production economy, small farms and large food processors can create a new model. States and local governments need to create incentives and clear the regulatory paths to make this possible.
